forecast revised; Typhoon Sea Warning more likely

UNCERTAINTY:
An expert said Tropical Storm Muifa would move northwest and linger in eastern Taiwan, but conditions mean certainty is impossible

A sea warning is likely to be issued tomorrow or Monday for Tropical Storm Muifa, which has been strengthening and is likely to develop into a typhoon, the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) said yesterday, going down on a day-before forecast. A sea warning was unlikely.

As of 8 a.m. yesterday, the tropical storm was en route 1,010 km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), Taiwan’s southernmost point, the bureau said.

The storm is expected to slow starting tomorrow and linger in the waters off eastern Taiwan due to a lack of air currents directing it, making it difficult to predict a path, it said.

The storm is expected to make its way south of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and then turn north toward Ishigaki by around Wednesday, sources said.

Bureau forecaster Chang Cheng-chuan (張承傳) said there was a high possibility that a sea warning would be issued, but was not yet sure whether a land warning would be necessary.

Muifa’s periphery could hit east and northeast Taiwan and the north coast with heavy rain, Chang said.

Photo: CNA

Wu Der-rong (吳德榮), associate professor of atmospheric sciences at National Central University, said forecasts he made using two different methods both showed Muifa moving in a northwesterly direction and staying in waters east of Taiwan, but complex atmospheric conditions meant it was impossible to be sure of anything except the general direction it was going.

CWB forecasts show the storm could develop into a typhoon, Wu said, adding that there are too many uncertainties to rule out the possibility of adverse weather impacts on Taiwan.

Yesterday’s sunny weather is likely to continue into today, CWB said, although residents of northern and eastern Taiwan should expect brief and localized showers from tonight through Wednesday.

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