Hurricane Center Increases Likelihood of Gulf of Mexico System Forming – Orlando Sentinel

The National Hurricane Center continues to keep an eye on a system in the Gulf of Mexico with a slim chance of developing into a tropical depression.

In its tropics update at 8 p.m. Saturday, the NHC said the weak low-pressure system off the Texas coast has increased shower and thunderstorm activity.

“Although there is some potential for land interactions to better define the disturbance while moving ashore on Sunday morning, no significant evolution of the system is expected,” forecasters said.

Whether the system grows or not, local rain is possible along the Texas coast through the weekend.

The NHC gives the system a 20% chance of forming over the next 48 hours, up from 10% on Saturday morning.

The hurricane season is approaching what is known as the peak season part of the year known for the most prolific production of storms between mid-August and mid-October, with September 10 being recorded as the statistically most productive day of storms in the tropics.

So far in the 2022 season there have been three named storms: Alex, Bonnie and Colin. Based on historical averages, the fourth named storm of the year typically appears by August 15. If a system were to emerge, it would be named Danielle.

Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reiterated its preseason forecast of an above-average hurricane season, with a range of 14 to 21 named storms. NOAA expects most of these storms to occur at the peak of the season.

Hurricane season ends on November 30th.

Staff writer Joe Mario Pedersen contributes to this report.

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