The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor four systems in the Atlantic.
Hurricane Sam remains a severe Category 4 storm and is expected to remain a major hurricane through the end of this week.
While models are calling for Sam to head north into the central Atlantic and avoid direct impact on the U.S., the swell is expected to reach the east coast by this weekend. These swells can cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions.
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Sam’s influence:Category 3 Hurricane Sam could trigger “life-threatening surf” on the east coast. But storm shouldn’t hit land.
What else is there? Beyond Sam, experts are observing several next developments
Elsewhere in the Atlantic there is a high probability that a system west of Africa will form a tropical depression. Another depression could form from a low pressure system further west.
While there is a chance that Peter’s remains could form a short-lived tropical depression, those chances are diminishing.
There are still two names left in the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, Victor and Wanda.
Here’s the latest update from the NHC, dated September 29th at 5am:
What’s out there and where are they?
Hurricane Sam: Sam is 455 miles east of the Leeward Islands or 1,610 miles east of West Palm Beach.
Fault 1: Recent satellite-based surface wind data shows that the low pressure system that lies over the Far Eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is gradually becoming better defined.
Fault 2: Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with an extensive depression lying several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Fault 3: A well-defined depression associated with the remains of Peter is located several hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda.
How likely is it that they will intensify?
Hurricane Sam: The maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph, with higher gusts. Sam is a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some intensity fluctuations are expected over the next few days, but Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through the end of this week.
Hurricane strength winds extend up to 40 miles outward from center and tropical gale force winds extend outward up to 200 miles.
Fault 1: The associated showers and thunderstorms show signs of organization, and a tropical depression is expected to form the next day or so as the disturbance travels at a rate of 10 to 24 km / h across the eastern tropical Atlantic from the west moved west.
- Educational opportunity up to 48 hours: high, 90 percent.
- Educational opportunity over 5 days: high, 90 percent.
Fault 2: The environmental conditions are conducive to gradual development and a tropical depression could still form in the next few days if the disturbance is not absorbed into the stronger eastern depression. The broad low is expected to slowly move from west-northwest to west across the central tropical Atlantic over the next few days.
- Educational opportunity up to 48 hours: medium, 60 percent.
- Educational opportunity over 5 days: medium, 60 percent.
Fault 3: The associated showers and thunderstorms remain limited, and the likelihood of this system turning into a short-lived tropical depression or storm decreases. This system is expected to move northeast at about 10 miles per hour on Wednesday to a region with very strong upper winds.
- Educational opportunity up to 48 hours: low, 30 percent.
- Educational opportunity over 5 days: low, 30 percent.
Details on Hurricane Sam
- Location: 455 miles east of the Leeward Islands; 2,600 miles east of West Palm Beach
- Maximum sustained winds: 130 km / h
- direction: Northwest at 9 mph
Who is likely to be affected?
Hurricane Sam: Waves generated by Sam will hit the Lesser Antilles in the next few days.
Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas in a day or two and then spread to the east coast of the United States by this weekend. These swells can cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions.
It is too early to tell right now whether the other unrest out there will affect the US.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and always be prepared during the likely active hurricane season.
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What’s out there
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