IMD DG – The New Indian Express

Through PTI

NEW DELHI: Climate change has hampered forecasting agencies’ ability to accurately forecast severe events, and weather agencies around the world are focusing on increasing observation network density and weather forecast modeling to improve predictability, said Mrutyunjay, director-general of India Meteorological Department (IMD). said Mohapatra.

He also said that although the monsoon rains have not shown a significant trend in the country, the number of heavy rain events has increased and that of light rain events have decreased due to climate change.

“We have the digital data of monsoon rainfall since 1901. Parts of north, east and north-east India are showing a decrease in rainfall, while some areas in the west, such as western Rajasthan, are showing an increase in rainfall. So there is no significant trend when we look at the country as a whole – the monsoon is random and shows large fluctuations,” the IMD chief said when asked about the impact of climate change on the Indian monsoon.

On July 27, the government informed Parliament that Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Meghalaya and Nagaland have shown significant decreasing trends in southwest monsoon rainfall over the past 30 years (1989-2018, both years inclusive).

Annual rainfall over these five states, along with Arunachal Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh, also showed significant downward trends, it said.

However, Mohapatra said an analysis of daily rainfall data since 1970 shows that the number of days with very heavy rainfall has increased and days with light or moderate rainfall have decreased.

“That means if it doesn’t rain, it doesn’t rain. When it rains, it rains heavily. Precipitation is more intense when there is a low pressure area. This is one of the major trends in the tropics belts, including India. Studies have proven that this increase in heavy rainfall and decrease in light precipitation is due to climate change,” he said in an interview with PTI.

The lead meteorologist explained that climate change has increased surface air temperature, which in turn has increased the rate of evaporation.

Since warmer air contains more moisture, this leads to intense precipitation.

“Climate change has increased instability in the atmosphere, leading to increases in convection activity — thunderstorms, lightning, and heavy rainfall. The severity of hurricanes in the Arabian Sea is also increasing. This increase in the frequency of extreme weather events poses a challenge for forecasters. Studies show that the ability to predict heavy rainfall is being hampered by climate change,” he said.

IMD is strengthening its observation network by expanding radars, automatic weather stations and rain gauges and satellites to improve predictability.

Its forecast accuracy has improved by about 30 to 40 percent for severe weather events such as cyclones, heavy rains, thunderstorms, heat waves, cold waves and fog over the past five years, due to improvements in the observation network, modeling and computer systems of the IMD and the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).

Sister organizations such as the IITM and the NCMRWF run atmospheric models and the INCOIS runs ocean state models and helps improve the IMD’s forecasts.

“We have deployed six radars in the northwestern Himalayas and four more will be installed this year. The procurement process for eight radar devices in the north-eastern Himalayan region is ongoing. There are certain gaps in the rest of the country that are being filled with 11 radars. The number of radars will increase from the current 34 to 67 by 2025,” Mohapatra said.

MoES also plans to upgrade its high-performance computing system – from a current capacity of 10 petaflops to 30 petaflops in the next two years – which will help integrate more data into the model, which can then be run at higher resolutions.

The weather modeling system IMD/MoES (Global Forecasting System) currently has a resolution of 12 kilometers.

The goal is six kilometers.

The resolution of the regional modeling system will also be improved from three kilometers to one kilometer.

The smaller the range of a weather model, the higher its resolution and the greater its accuracy.

“We are currently providing forecasts down to the district and block level. In the future, we will provide forecasts down to panchayat-level clusters and specific locations within cities,” Mohapatra said.

On climate change increasing the vulnerability of the Himalayas, he said, “Climate change is a fact and we must plan all our activities accordingly.”

A study by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, MoES, says the frequency of mini-downpours (5cm or more of rainfall in an hour) is increasing in the Himalayas.

And it can also cause harm, Mohapatra said.

The IMD chief said the number of deaths from hurricanes, heatwaves, etc.

has decreased over the years due to an improvement in early warning lead time and preparedness, planning, prevention and mitigation approaches.

“Over the past three years, service delivery — weather information for health, energy, agriculture, air quality, hydrology, airports and the marine sector — has improved tremendously,” said Mohapatra, who took over as IMD chief in 2019.

NEW DELHI: Climate change has hampered forecasting agencies’ ability to accurately forecast severe events, and weather agencies around the world are focusing on increasing observation network density and weather forecast modeling to improve predictability, said Mrutyunjay, director-general of India Meteorological Department (IMD). said Mohapatra. He also said that although the monsoon rains have not shown a significant trend in the country, the number of heavy rain events has increased and that of light rain events have decreased due to climate change. “We have the digital data of monsoon rainfall since 1901. Parts of north, east and north-east India are showing a decrease in rainfall, while some areas in the west, such as western Rajasthan, are showing an increase in rainfall. So there is no significant trend when we look at the country as a whole – the monsoon is random and shows large fluctuations,” the IMD chief said when asked about the impact of climate change on the Indian monsoon. Had on July 27 The Government informed Parliament that Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Meghalaya and Nagaland have shown significant decreasing trends in southwest monsoon rainfall over the past 30 years (1989-2018, both years inclusive).The annual rainfall over these five states, along with Arunachal Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh, also showed clear downward trends, it said.Mohapatra said, however, an analysis of daily rainfall data since 1970 shows that the number of days with very heavy rainfall has increased and days with light or moderate rainfall have decreased “That means if it doesn’t rain, it doesn’t rain. If it rains, it rains heavily. Der Nieders stroke is more intense when there is a low pressure area. This is one of the major trends in the tropics belts, including India. Studies have proven that this increase in heavy rainfall and decrease in light precipitation is due to climate change,” he said in an interview with PTI. The lead meteorologist explained that climate change has increased surface air temperature, which in turn increases the rate of evaporation Because warmer air contains more moisture, this leads to intense precipitation.”Climate change has increased instability in the atmosphere, leading to an increase in convection activity — thunderstorms, lightning, and heavy rains. The intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea is also increasing “This increase in the frequency of extreme weather events poses a challenge for forecasters. Studies show that the ability to predict heavy rainfall is being hampered by climate change,” he said. IMD is strengthening its observation network by expanding radars, automatic weather stations and rain gauges and satellites to improve predictability. Its forecast accuracy has improved by about 30 to 40 percent for severe weather events such as cyclones, heavy rains, thunderstorms, heat waves, cold waves and fog over the past five years, due to improvements in the observation network, modeling and computer systems of the IMD and the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES). Sister organizations such as the IITM and the NCMRWF run atmospheric models and the INCOIS runs ocean state models and helps improve the IMD’s forecasts. “We have deployed six radars in the northwestern Himalayas and four more will be installed this year. The procurement process for eight radar devices in the north-eastern Himalayan region is ongoing. There are certain gaps in the rest of the country that are being filled with 11 radars. The number of radars will increase from the current 34 to 67 by 2025,” Mohapatra said. The MoES also plans to upgrade its high-performance computing system – from a current capacity of 10 petaflops to 30 petaflops in the next two years – which will help to integrate more data into the model, which can then be run at higher resolutions. The weather modeling system IMD/MoES (Global Forecasting System) currently has a resolution of 12 kilometers. The target is six kilometers. Likewise, the resolution of the regional modeling system is increased to three kilometers to one kilometer. The smaller the range of a weather model, the higher its resolution and the greater its accuracy. “We currently provide forecasts down to the district and block level. In the future, we will provide forecasts down to clusters at the Panchayat level and specific locations within cities,” Mohapatra said of the Himalayas, he said: “Climate change is a fact and we must plan all our activities accordingly.” A study by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, MoES, says that the frequency of mini-bursts (5 cm or more of precipitation in one hour) in the Himalayas. And it can also cause harm, Mohapatra said. The IMD chief said the number of deaths from cyclones, heat waves, etc. has decreased over the years due to an improvement in early warning lead time and preparedness, planning, prevention and mitigation approaches. “Over the past three years, service delivery — weather information for health, energy, agriculture, air quality, hydrology, airports and the marine sector — has improved tremendously,” said Mohapatra, who took over as IMD chief in 2019.

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