For more than 200 years, the publishers of The Farmers’ Almanac have published long-term, annual weather forecasts based on a formula that compares data from solar patterns and historical weather conditions to current solar activity.
But how accurate have their predictions been so far this winter?
The annual winter weather forecast for the 2021-22 season, released last October, called for a “frosty flip-flop winter” marked by a “typical winter chill” that arrived in January along with a major storm.
Now, just weeks after a strong winter storm dropped more than two feet of snow on Norwich, temperatures in the city are expected to approach 60 degrees on Saturday, continuing the “flip-flop” trend identified in the publication was outlined last October.
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The Farmers’ Almanac forecast says February will be a ‘calmer’ month for local weather, but a ‘winter whopper’ could be in the offing by the end of the month.
In anticipation of that storm’s arrival later this month, the Almanac’s Winter Outlook, released four months ago, appears to have largely proved more or less accurate.
The weather forecasts come from three scientific disciplines, with forecasts highlighting temperature and precipitation deviations from averages, and are based on 30-year statistical averages compiled by national weather agencies.
What is the spring forecast?
The arrival of the vernal equinox is on March 20 at 11:33 a.m., “however, the weather and calendar may not be on the same page,” the publication said.
“According to our long-term forecast, temperatures will slowly rise,” the forecast reads. “Indeed, around the time of the vernal equinox, unusually cold temperatures can grip many parts of the country.”
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In Connecticut and the Northeast region, March will bring lower-than-usual precipitation totals, but the drier regional outlook isn’t shared for the rest of the country.
In late April, the editors of the fabled weather forecast announce a major storm over the Rocky Mountains in the Midwest.
“It’s going to be a veritable ‘meteorological stirring stick,’ stirring up everything from snow, wind, rain, violent thunderstorms, and possibly even a few tornadoes,” the 2022 outlook reads.