Rain and thunderstorms move east as the northwest prepares for another cold spell

An intense western disturbance has “creamed” the hills in northwest India with heavy snow and washed excess moisture over the plains in the form of rain or thunderstorms, while its southern flanks will trigger further wetness over the East Indies and the south peninsula.

The western system will continue to move eastward, allowing for colder northwest winds (as opposed to the warm southwest winds that became the southeast winds associated with the western disturbance) and tumbling minima (nighttime temperature) over northwest India. A new western disorder is expected to check in from across the international border by Sunday.

Rain showers for South India

In the south, the system will evoke isolated to fairly widespread light or moderate rainfall or thunderstorms over the coasts of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana for 4-5 days.

Isolated thunderstorms, lightning and hail can break out over Telangana tomorrow and heavy rains in isolated places over the coasts of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana on Thursday.

Regardless, a sustained cyclonic circulation over the southwestern Bay of Bengal will bring scattered light rain or thunderstorms over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe for the next 4-5 days.

Minimum temperature trend

The minimum (night) temperatures are currently 2-4 degrees Celsius above normal in many parts of the plains of northwest, central and eastern India, as clouds prevent solar radiation from escaping into the atmosphere. You could fall over the plains in the next two days as the western system moves east.

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Moving clouds will help ensure that minimum temperatures over East India rise by 2-3 degrees Celsius by tomorrow. As in the plains of adjacent northwest India, lows over north Madhya Maharashtra can drop 2-4 degrees Celsius in the next 2-3 days as the clouds move away from west-central India.

Cold wave, thick fog

Cold waves can settle across parts of Punjab, Haryana, and Chandigarh, and across northern Rajasthan through Thursday, Wednesday through Saturday. Cold days can prevail in parts of Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.

Dense or very dense fog can fall on Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh during the night or morning hours for the next 4-5 days and on northern Rajasthan for the next three days, as the remaining moisture is on the trail of the western unrest caused by the Cold is cooled down by northwest winds pouring in.

Moderate to heavy rain

Meanwhile, the western disturbance brought on Monday at Kandaghat-8, Dharampur, Solan and Pachhad in Kandaghat-8, Dharampur, Solan and Pachhad above Himachal Pradesh various moderate to heavy precipitation (in cm) – 7 each; Rajgarh, Bharmaur, Khadrala, Kasauli, Sangraha, Shimla Airport, and Sirmaur – 6 each; Arki, Naina Davi, Baldwara, Jattom Barrage, Sundernagar, and Nahan – 5 each; Banjar, Kothi, Sarahan, Shimla, Mandi, Rampur, Karsog, Gohar and Manali – 4 pieces each.

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East Madhya Pradesh (in cm): Pawai 6, Venkatnagar 6, Gonour 4 and Buxwaha 4. West Uttar Pradesh: Bijnor and Moradabad each 6, Amroha 5 and Nakur 4. East Uttar Pradesh: Chitrakoot 4; Haryana: Yamuna Nagar and Panchkula 5 respectively, Ambala 4 and Chandigarh 3; Uttarakhand: Dehradun 3.

Rain wanders east

Warm, moist air blowing over cooler ground rolled an envelope of dense to very dense fog in parts of Punjab, northwest Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Odisha. Scattered showers of hail occurred over the familiar terrain along the plains of Vidarbha.

Rainhead traveling eastward will trigger scattered to fairly widespread light or moderate rainfall over Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim and Odisha through Friday. Over Uttar Pradesh and east of Madhya Pradesh sporadic to sporadic rains can last until tomorrow (Thursday).

Single heavy rains can lash Odisha today (Tuesday) and Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms, lightning and hail can spread over Vidarbha on these days; today over Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and the hills of West Bengal; over the hills of West Bengal, Sikkim and Telangana tomorrow (Wednesday); and about Odisha on Thursday.

Across Arunachal Pradesh, rain or snowfall is likely sporadically to fairly widespread until Thursday and sporadically over Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura tomorrow (Wednesday).

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