Friday October 7th: Parts of NE India will experience their first major rainy spell of the post-monsoon season in the coming days, albeit in the presence of monsoon conditions and a Bay of Bengal meteorological system.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a cyclonic circulation lies over the central parts of the southern Bay of Bengal at mid-tropospheric levels. In addition, another cyclonic circulation overlies the south coast of Andhra Pradesh, with a trough running from this system to the central parts of North Uttar Pradesh via Telangana, Vidarbha and West Madhya Pradesh.
Under the combined influence of these systems, fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall and isolated serious falls (64.5mm-115.5mm) thunderstorms and lightning are very likely over the next five days in NE India.
Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya will experience these conditions from Friday through next Tuesday (October 7-11), while Mizoram and Tripura will experience showers from Sunday through Tuesday (October 9-11).
Therefore, these states are set to a yellow clock during their respective heavy rain days. This IMD advisory urges residents to keep themselves “up to date” on the local weather situation and plan accordingly.
Similar conditions are also observed in the neighboring eastern Indian sub-Himalayan states of West Bengal and Sikkim on October 7 and 8, and in Odisha on October 9.
Meanwhile, the southwest monsoon continues to retreat from the northwestern parts of the country. Typically, its exit from the northeastern region begins around October 10; but judging by the rate of withdrawals so far, it might be delayed a bit this year.
In terms of seasonal rainfall, the northeastern region experienced below-average rainfall overall during the four monsoon months from June to September. The combined monsoon rainfall figure for East and Northeast India is 1124.8mm – 18% below their long-term monsoon average of 1367.3mm.
Within the Northeast, the Assam-Meghalaya subdivision recorded 1600.7 mm of rain (9% deficit), the NMMT states recorded 943.2 mm of precipitation (28% deficit), Arunachal Pradesh received 1430.3 mm (15% deficit), while Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim enjoyed just “normal” seasonal rainfall of 1887.1 mm.
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