There are strong indications that a potentially significant severe weather outbreak could occur over several days this week in the US southern and US southeast
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has highlighted this threat since Tuesday when it issued a rare severe weather forecast a week before the threat of destructive storms.
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the United States on Sunday, but that will change quickly by Monday, when this multi-day siege of severe weather is likely to begin.
A strong southward plunge of the jet stream will slam into the Southern Plains from the Rocky Mountains on Monday, leading to the development of an area of low surface pressure in the region. Warm, moist air will flow north from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the depression and collide with cooler, drier air over the Rocky Mountains.
The result of this setup will be major instability in the atmosphere that will result in numerous severe storms developing beginning Monday afternoon, followed by additional rounds of severe weather on Tuesday and Wednesday as the low-pressure area moves east through midweek emotional.
“Results from the global medium-range model — both deterministic and aggregate — continue to indicate a multi-day severe weather event that will propagate eastward from the southern plains Monday through southeastern Wednesday,” the SPC wrote in its severe weather forecast released Friday morning .
Before arriving south, this weather system will blanket the higher ground of the Rocky Mountains with fresh snowfall on Sunday while high winds howl through adjacent parts of the prairies and southwest.
Here’s everything we know for now, but as we’re still a few days away from this potential severe weather outbreak, expect forecast changes in the coming days.
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon and continue into Monday night from the eastern half of Texas to western and northern Louisiana and southwest Arkansas. Areas shaded in the dark red outline on the map below have the greatest risk of severe weather.
Some tornadoes, large hail and destructive gusts of wind are threats in this region.
Cities included in Monday’s severe weather risk are Houston, Dallas/Fort Worth, Austin and Waco in Texas, and Shreveport and Alexandria in Louisiana.
Tornadoes are possible in central and east Texas, but there is potential for powerful EF-2 tornadoes in areas like Waco, Killeen, Austin, Huntsville, and Houston.
There is also a significant risk of large hail, including the potential for 2-inch hail in Waco and Austin.
High winds are also a problem, with damaging gusts likely coming from the Dallas/Fort Worth area south to San Antonio and Houston. The threat of high winds also extends into western Louisiana.
Another round of severe storms is likely Tuesday through Tuesday night, although the threat will be concentrated farther east than Monday.
The greatest risk of severe weather is from central and eastern Louisiana to southeastern Arkansas, Mississippi and western half of Alabama. These include the cities of Alexandria in Louisiana, Jackson and Hattiesburg in Mississippi, and Birmingham, Montgomery and Mobile in Alabama.
Some tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are possible with these storms.
The threat of severe thunderstorms is expected to continue into Wednesday, with the threat once again shifting further east.
Areas from central and southeast Alabama to central and south Georgia and the Florida Panhandle are at greatest risk of severe storms.
Cities included in the severe weather risk are Montgomery and Dothan in Alabama, Macon and Columbus in Georgia, and Tallahassee and Destin in Florida.
Wednesday’s threat may not be as great as it was earlier in the week, but the region still faces significant risk of some tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts.
There’s a chance some severe storms could threaten Florida and other parts of the southeast coast on Thursday, but risk appears limited in those areas before the system responsible for this multi-day severe weather siege moves offshore later Thursday .