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Jacksonville, FL – Daily Tropical Updates: “Talking to Mike About the Tropics”
Elsa has left NE Fl./SE Ga. So that we can officially “Let it Goâ€. Unfortunately there were deaths, injuries and property damage. A tree fell on a car in Ortega, killing the driver. An EF-1 tornado hurtled through Duval Co. east and southeast of downtown, a little way off I-95. An EF-2 tornado struck Camden Co., Georgia from St. Marys to Kings Bay Base, injuring 17. The rain was heavy, but not so heavy that there was much flooding. The peak wind gusts were generally 30-50 mph.
Tornado from Duval Co .:
Watch the safety video of the tornado that was torn apart by Cannon in Jacksonville:
The tornadoes in Metro Jacksonville in the past 20 years or so include 3 cyclones created by tropical cyclones:
Elsa was interesting to predict. The typically reliable European forecasting model struggled mightily, while the American GFS model did an excellent job. In the end, moderate shear, some dry air, land interaction, and water temperatures. warm, but not excessive, so all together to ultimately limit Elsa’s organization and strength. Still … the season. Could be a sign of a busy mid to late season emerging from the deep tropics.
Speaking of the tropics … Dr. Phil Klotzbach, CSU, has updated his seasonal hurricane forecast. The numbers have increased slightly across the board and include the 5 names (including 1 hurricane) so far. Klotzbach says:
“We have raised our forecast slightly and continue to forecast an above-average hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin in 2021. The current neutral ENSO conditions are expected to continue for the next few months. Average sea surface temperatures over most of the tropical Atlantic are now near to slightly above normal, and most of the subtropical North Atlantic remains warmer than normal. Elsa’s development and intensification into a hurricane in the tropical Atlantic also typically indicates an active season. We anticipate an above-average probability of major hurricanes hitting land along the continental coast of the United States and the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that only one hurricane hits the land, making it an active season for them. You should prepare the same for each season, regardless of how much activity is forecast. “
Some never knew there was such a law but the Floridians can now drive their car with the Hazards on! That’s right – there was a law according to which the hazard warning lights of a car could only be switched on / flashing when the vehicle was stationary. But a new law, which went into effect July 1, allows drivers to use their hazards on freeways with a speed limit of at least 55 mph “when conditions create extremely poor visibility.”
Night sky in July (from Himmel & Teleskop):
7-10 July (Dawn): Look 30 to 45 minutes before sunrise to spot Mercury very low on the east-northeast horizon.
8th of July (Dawn): The moon, one day before the new beginning, is 4½ ° to the left of Mercury.
July 11th (Twilight): The two-day-old moon forms a 6 ° line with Venus and Mars deep on the west-north-western horizon.
July 12 (Twilight): Venus and Mars are within ½ ° of each other while the crescent moon hovers in the upper left.
16th of July (Evening): The waxing crescent moon is in Virgo, about 6 ° from Spica.
July 19th (Evening): The waxing, domed moon is 1 ° away from Beta (β) Scorpii in the claws of the Scorpion. Antares is in the lower left of the couple.
21 July (Twilight): Venus shines brightly in increasing twilight and is about 1 ° away from Regulus in Leo.
July 23 (Night): The moon, one day after the full moon, and Saturn form a graceful vertical pair deep in the southwest before sunrise. Jupiter is hovering nearby in the upper left.
24th July (Night): The waning curved moon forms a flat arc with Jupiter and Saturn.
July 25th (Night): Moon and Jupiter hang 5 ° apart, Saturn to the right.
28-29 July (all night): The humble meteor shower of the southern delta of Aquarius; a waning domed moon will affect visibility.
1st – 2nd August (all night): Saturn reaches opposition to the sun in the sky. It rises at sunset and sets at sunrise.
11-12 August (all night): The Perseid meteor shower reaches its maximum; the waxing crescent moon does not interfere with viewing. In a dark place with minimal light pollution, expect up to 1 meteor per minute.
Phases of the moon
Last quarter – July 1 at 5:11 p.m. EDT
New Moon – July 9th at 9:17 p.m. EDT
First quarter – July 17 at 5:11 a.m. EDT
Full moon – July 23rd at 10:37 p.m. EDT
(Full Buck Moon, named for the appearance of antlers on buck deer)
Last quarter – July 31, 9:16 a.m. EDT
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