Temperatures stay warm for most of the week

Monday weather 11-8-21

VICTORIA, Texas-: today: Partly sunny to mostly sunny skies with light winds, while temperatures remain average. High: 78 degrees. Wind: SE 5-10 mph. A 10% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms. In the early hours of the morning, which developed after midnight last night, patchy fog should burn off.

Monday night: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures remain above average. Low: 60 degrees. Wind: SE 5-10 mph. A 10% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms. A spotty fog forms after 2 a.m.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures remain above average. High: 81 degrees. Wind: SE 5-10 mph. A 10% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures remain above average. Low: 61 degrees. Wind: SE 5-10 mph. A 10% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Extended forecast: Wednesday by Monday:

Wednesday: Partly sunny skies with stormy winds while temperatures remain above average. High: 81/62 degrees. Wind: SE 5-15 / G20 mph. A 10% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Mostly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures remain average. High: 81/53 degrees. Wind: E 5-10 mph. A 10% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Partly sunny skies with moderate winds while temperatures remain below average. High: 75/45 degrees. Wind: N 15 mph. A 30% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures remain below average. High: 69/41 degrees. Wind: NO 10 mph. A 10% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures remain average. High: 75/56 degrees. Wind: SW 10 mph. A 10% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Monday: Partly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures remain average. High: 75/56 degrees. Wind: SE 10 mph. A 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Summary: Moisture (low) from the Gulf has penetrated the area, which helped raise temperatures (and dew points) and increase cloud cover yesterday (Sunday). As humidity and dew point increase, this will bring more cloud and fog conditions overnight from Sunday to Monday morning.

Due to slight winds on the ground (dry upper layers) and rising dew points, fog may form on Sunday night and Monday night. Fog ingredients look strongest for areas in the northern part of the field of view. Storms in northeast Mexico and west Texas continue moving west to east towards the area and will continue to push more moisture into south Texas on Monday morning.

Even with storms in the region, the probability of precipitation remains around 20 percent because the humidity remains below 1.

During the day on Monday, the storm energy will leave the region as high pressure enters the area. Combine that movement with the moisture pulling in from the Gulf (south) and we’ll see warmer, wetter conditions for Monday (upper 70s to mid 80s).

The tides (mostly south of Port “A” will be about 2 feet above sea level and we will monitor the tides in case there is a risk of flooding on Monday.

Long-term for the longer period, days 3 through 7, Tuesday through Sunday, there will be storms over the Hill Country (west of Austin) on Tuesday afternoon, but will move southeast into the Texas Coastal Plains until Wednesday morning. The humidity is only enough to increase the cloud cover at medium and high levels. Levels should stay low enough to prevent rain.

On Wednesday morning, a trough will move out of the Rocky Mountains into the central and southern plateaus. On Thursday morning, the trough will move east through Missouri, Arkansas.

Next, low pressure storms will hit the central plains and the upper Midwest on Thursday morning. These storms will push a cold front into south central Texas on Thursday morning.

The cold front will slow (stagnate) over Brush Country late Thursday afternoon. High pressure, which should arrive later Thursday evening, will begin to push the cold front south as the airflow from the northwest to the southeast plunges into the southern plains. There will be decent humidity over the Texan coast, but rain will be limited. The best chance of rain seems to be Friday as the cold front penetrates Thursday night through Friday. Most activities should be limited to the coast and open waters.

The trough will move east across the Mississippi Valley on Saturday, while the weekend appears to remain cooler and drier.

The tides (mostly south of Port “A” will be about 2 feet above sea level and we will monitor the tides if there is a risk of flooding in the evening hours Tuesday and Wednesday around high tide time.

Tropics: A non-tropical low pressure system with storm winds (55-63 mph) is located a few hundred miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This system is expected to move east-northeast over the next few days and could gradually lose its frontal properties over the subtropical Atlantic by the middle of this week. This low could take on some tropical features as it moves east or east-northeast across the open waters of the Central Atlantic. The chance of strengthening is 10 percent in the next 48 hours, but up to 20 percent in the next 5 days.

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