After an eventful Sunday night, the weather has calmed down a bit across Texas today. We’ll stay calm tonight before transitioning into an active weather pattern from Tuesday and lasting through Friday morning. Severe thunderstorms are possible tomorrow and tomorrow night. A fading hurricane in the Pacific will have a major impact on our weather on Wednesday and Thursday. Our focus will shift to heavy rain and localized flooding versus severe thunderstorm risk.
Severe weather opportunities Tuesday & Tuesday night
There is a minor risk of single severe storms on Tuesday afternoons in Hill Country, Central Texas, and North Texas. Pocket-sized hail and gusty winds would be possible in stronger storms as they move northeast.
Severe thunderstorms become much more likely after sunset on Tuesday in the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas. Just like yesterday, we expect a series of thunderstorms to develop when a strong upwelling hits the upper level. We have to wait until 7-10pm for the elevator to arrive. Storms can develop relatively quickly, and storms will advance northeast into western Oklahoma.
The initial storm development can be supercellular with the risk of large hail, noxious winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Relatively rapid growth to a line of gusts is expected, adding to the harmful threat of straight winds and possibly some short tornadoes. We will refine our expectations tomorrow.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop further south into western Big Country and western Concho Valley from late Tuesday evening to the wee hours of Wednesday morning. The strongest storms can produce hail and high winds.
These storms are also likely to grow into a bad line moving east into north Texas in the hours before dawn. Some storms can still generate strong winds, but the risk of severe weather will decrease a few hours before sunrise. ‘
Pacific Hurricane will bring heavy rain to Texas on Wednesday and Thursday
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Pamela is a rapidly intensifying tropical cyclone off the coast of southwestern Mexico. It is likely that tonight will turn into a hurricane and a major hurricane before it hits land on Wednesday morning. After that, it quickly weakens over the Mexican inland as it moves northeast. Why are we talking about Pamela? Well, Pamela’s moisture is coming straight to Texas on Wednesday and Thursday. We will not experience any hurricane-related effects such as high winds or storm surges. However, heavy rainfall and local flooding will pose a threat.
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Pamela’s “swell” will result in heavy rains in a corridor from the Edwards Plateau northeast into the Hill Country, North Texas and Texoma. We would like to point out that the heavy rain axis does not necessarily have to be so wide that a strong gradient in the rain sums is to be expected. Don’t fixate on the exact location of heavier rains – that will likely shift a little over the next two days.
I leave you the forecasted rain probabilities from Tuesday to Friday morning. The western third of Texas remains dry. It looks like Deep South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, and most of Southeast Texas will remain largely dry. The probability of rain in the next three days (no continuous rain, but chances) will be in the regions * not * mentioned as dry. It can rain a little on Friday morning in southeast Texas.