Thunderstorm Forecast in North Dakota | Bryan Dijkhuizen

Despite the fact that most southern Red River Valley storms have exceeded the MLCAPE axis of instability, satellite and radar trends continue to indicate a weakening pattern in southern Red River Valley storms.

There are also a few remaining flow barriers trending northwest that can be seen on satellite and radar imagery. This is not exactly the most advantageous position for further expansion as the bulk shear vectors are more oriented west to east which is better suited for further development.

There is a possibility of localized severe weather developing in the form of showers and thunderstorms upstream over the next few hours, although this is unlikely. Since the current is remarkably low at low altitude, the risk of a tornado in this area should be greatly reduced.

Storms developing outside of these limits are expected to produce hail and destructive gusts of wind, which will be the primary hazard of this situation.

A southwesterly current with good moisture return is still in place at altitude, while the next strong system arrives tonight through Monday when large-scale forces will combine with anomalous moisture and at least some instability to result in widespread downpours and embedded thunderstorms across the country produce.

The chance of 1 inch or more of precipitation is high, while the chance of 2 inches or more is 30-50 percent, based on National Weather Service forecasts.

However, due to the potential for significant deformation and instability, there is a strong signal for organized banding, which would support a band of 2 inches or more, and does, but the likelihood of this happening is likely reduced due to the variation in the trace of these potential bands.

Currently there is not a high probability of 3 inches or more of rain or snow in the next 48 hours, but it is doable in areas with better structured convection.

A flood watch has been issued for tonight through Monday evening for locations at risk of saturation or sustained flooding over land for new or worsened situations when these higher totals are met.

About Mike Crayton

Check Also

BoM weather forecast: The Aussies prepare for wild weather with thunderstorms, heavy rain and hail to hit NSW, Qld, VIC, SA and NT

Residents have been urged to be on high alert after the Bureau of Meteorology issued …