Top Stories of the Week: June 26th – July 2nd, 2021 – GC Capital Ideas


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Forecasts for the tropical season 2021:

  • Active Atlantic expected: There is unanimous agreement in all forecasting units from science, government and the private sector that the Atlantic hurricane season 2021 will have storms, hurricanes, large hurricanes and storm days on average to above average.
  • The factors that drive an active Atlantic forecast include above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Western Pacific regions and a forecast transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions.
  • Effects on landings in the Atlantic Basin: The ratio of hurricane landings to basin activity varies considerably from year to year and depends heavily on the steering currents. Weather forecasting for any event generally loses its capabilities beyond a 7-10 day forecast lead.
  • Typhoon expectations in the Western Pacific: Thanks to the relationship between the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Center and the City University of Hong Kong, the forecast for the Western Pacific in 2021 shows above-average activity. However, landings vary across the region, with above-average activity most likely in southern China and Vietnam.

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Graphic: Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line (ROL) Index – 1990 to 2021: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index rose 4.5 percent year-on-year as of January 1. The index is a measure of the change in the change in US dollars paid for coverage on a consistent program basis and reflects the price impact of a growing (or shrinking) risk base, evolving methods of measuring risk and changes in buying habits, and changes in market conditions contrary.

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Video; Dean Klisura, President, Guy Carpenter, On the Reinsurance Landscape: Guy Carpenter President, Dean Klisura, speaks with The Insurer on a wide range of topics including the changing nature of risk, the arena of COVID-19 excess damage, broker consolidation and The race for talent, public-private structures for systemic cyber, future pandemic (re) insurance solutions and the insurance-linked securities renaissance.

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Three major political risks and credit risks amid the pandemic recovery: The effects of COVID-19 are too far-reaching for any sector to bear the risks alone, and some kind of government-participatory mechanism needs to be put in place. As governments continue to implement fiscal and monetary policies in response to COVID-19, economic risks at the country level will increase in all regions, according to Marsh Specialty Political Risk Map 2021.

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Tropical Cyclone Briefing in the Western North Pacific Basin 2021: Guy Carpenter published the annual briefing on the Tropical Cyclone Season 2021 in the Western North Pacific Basin. According to the briefing, the number of tropical cyclones forecast between April 1 and September 30 is above normal.

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And you may have missed….

Video; Peter Hearn – Navigating the Changing Nature of Risk – Opportunities and Reinsurance Support: Peter Hearn, CEO, Guy Carpenter, speaks with Asia Insurance Review about the impact of the changing risk landscape on the insurance industry – how the industry should respond to these changes – and how reinsurance can support these new opportunities. Reinsurance supports insurance carriers in many dimensions – it is a flexible capital instrument, it supports growth and controls volatility.

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